Trea Turner was the second elite shortstop to leave the Dodgers as a free agent in as many years.
Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports
When the short game of musical chairs came to a halt, it wasn’t just me Dodgers They don’t have a seat, but they also weren’t even in the room. The team that has spent the most money over the past decade has essentially opted out of one of the hottest free agent markets ever, especially in shortstops, with the top of the market up 59% from last year.
The star-studded Dodgers have had Corey Seeger and Trea Turner for the past two seasons. They let each one leave as free agents. In the past two years, eight elite free agent shortstops have changed teams: Seager, Turner, Carlos Correa (twice), Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, Javier Báez, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. Los Angeles wasn’t a factor in all of them.
Five shortstops for the Elites last year pulled contracts that paid them an average of $177.06 million. This year the average has swelled to $276.75 million for the Big Four — even without the Dodgers’ money being a factor.
That Gavin Lux is their pit stop today, and not one of those eight freeriders, points to the uniquely tight space the Dodgers choose to occupy. Lux was short as a junior, but he’d never played more than 92 games in a season at that position – and that was in 2018, when he was 20 years old. There is some doubt as to whether he has the tools, especially the arm strength, to play the short daily range for a championship team. Last season, his arm strength ranked 21st out of 26 second basemen who made at least 300 runs at center.
However, the Dodgers know Lux better than any team, and are convinced he can be a shortstop. They could point to Swanson, who led Brave to the 2021 World Series title while ranked last in short arm strength, or Jeremy Peña, who didn’t play in the major leagues prior to his outstanding rookie season for champion Astros.
What’s going on with the Dodgers this winter is more complicated than trusting Lux. They let nine players leave for contracts worth $462.5 million while signing six free agents for a fraction of that cost, $45.4 million — with no multi-year commitments. Here are the main reasons why Los Angeles is cutting back on its spending:
1. 2022 NLDS
Despite signing Freddie Freeman in the spring and winning 111 regular season games, the Dodgers were eliminated from the postseason after only four games.
Orlando Ramirez/USA Today Sports
The Dodgers spent $296.6 million in payroll and taxes last season for 111 wins, just to get He rebounded in four games In the series Division written by A parents Team with 22 fewer wins. Meanwhile, A.J Veles The team with a record of 24 fewer wins is awarded the NL pennant.
According to one team source, the crushing exit led to some internal research on the cost of “trying to build a super team year after year after year.” Feeding the beast big contracts and trades to the likes of Mookie Betts, Turner, Max Scherzer, Trevor Bauer, AJ Pollock, Chris Taylor, Kenley Jansen and Freddie Freeman had the added cost of blocking the tracks of local players.
The postseason exit exposed not only the randomness inherent in a small sample of postseason series, but also two major flaws with the Dodgers.
One, they simply don’t get enough volume from their starting pitchers, especially with Walker Buehler out – but that’s in part by analytical design. Their starter scored 16 runs in four games against San Diego. Over the past two seasons, Dodgers starters have been 2-5 in 16 games while taking the ball through six runs just twice. Los Angeles has played 32 consecutive postseason games without allowing a player to run through their lineup three complete times.
Secondly, their insult was broken. The Padres have chewed the Dodgers lineup hard. The Dodgers saw 50% of their fastballs, up from 48.6% in the regular season, with an average speed of 95.6 mph, up from 93.8 mph. 206 against those Heaters from San Diego. The bats of Trayce Thompson, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Chris Taylor and Lux seemed particularly slow. 133 against fastballs. The Dodgers need better bats against speed.
2. Power
Bauer appeals to him 322 game commentary from MLB for violating the sport’s domestic violence policy. Until a decision is reached, perhaps in the next month or two, the Dodgers don’t know if they should pay back some, none, or all of Power’s lost salary, which could affect their recalculated luxuries taxes. It could also affect their 2023 payroll due to…
3. Reset tax rates on luxuries
Falling below the first luxury tax threshold in 2023 ($233 million) would reset the Dodgers’ starting tax rate from 50% to 20% in 2024 (when the first threshold would be $237 million).
Dodgers f Yankees I worked in this tax limbo for a year before. The Dodgers barely did that in 2018 (and hardly again in 2019). The Yankees did so in ’18 and ’21, finishing each time in second place, eight games out of first, and never advancing past the ALDS.
The Dodgers could stay below $233 million in 2023, then blow the payroll as a first-time offender in 2024. How high can they go? Alia Steve Cohen. In 2015, the Dodgers carried a payroll of $298 million. That’s $374.3 million in today’s dollars.
Why would 2024 be a good time to blow it up?
4. Shuhei Ohtani
Otani has said repeatedly that he wants to play for a winning team, even if it means leaving the Angels. The Dodgers would obviously be a good fit.
Jane Kamen Oncia/USA Today Sports
The Dodgers have wanted Ohtani since he was in high school. An opportunity may come – either in july by trade if Angels Out of the race and have a new owner in place—or, more likely, through free agency after the season.
Cohen proved that you can never be left out mets When it comes to the payroom. The Yankees have $128.8 million committed to the luxury tax every year through 2027 for Aaron Judgeand Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton Carlos Rodon As they age through their 30s. Ohtani will reach free agency in time for the 29-year-old’s season — two years younger than Judge — and as a Bidirectional effect player And the main draw card is probably the first $50 million a year player in the game.
The Dodgers have a huge opener at the right time. It doesn’t guarantee they’ll get it, and no team plans that tight for one player, but they do give themselves the best chance.
5. The next wave of home-grown Dodgers stars
From 2015 to 2017, the Dodgers were promoted to major league champions Seager, Julio Urías, Ross Stripling, Buehler, and Bellinger. Los Angeles likewise believes in its core of ready and semi-ready talent, including the Locks, players Miguel Vargas and Michael Bosh, outfielders James Ottman and Andy Pages, catcher Diego Kartaya, and shooters Bobby Miller, Ryan Peott and Gavin Stone. The payouts are particularly high with Vargas and Pages, who have great hit tools, and Miller, who can be a rotation tool.
Even if they’re right about this group, it’s hard to win a championship while creating more than one or two young players. With the roster they have today, the Dodgers are no better parents With Vargas Hangar at third, Lux short and Muncy at second—lots of defensive questions, especially without spells—and a mix of Thompson, Taylor, Outman, and Jason Heyward in center field.
6. Reclamation
Starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin — a two-way player at St. Mary’s — and Travelers Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heene combined to go 35-20 in 2022. Evan Phillips, who was released a year earlier, was Orioles He demanded concessions from rays. The line-up included Taylor, Muncie, Thompson and Justin Turner, all of whom had been let go by other clubs.
The Dodgers are great at identifying underperforming players and bringing out the best in them. That thinking defines their entire offseason shopping list: DH JD Martinez (at the behest of the Betts and hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc), outfielders Yonny Hernández, outfielders Bradley Zimmer and Heyward, and pitchers. Noah Syndergaardand Shelby Miller and JP Verizon. They are all projects.
Mind you, Dodgers Bellinger can’t be fixed, one of them; Joey Gallo didn’t make it, and Muncy and Taylor need a fix after they struggled against speed last season (. 143 and . 222 against fastballs 94 mph and up, respectively).
Hernandez has the defensive flexibility the Dodgers love and is the kind of bench player who gains value in the new world devoid of turnovers and stolen bases. The Dodgers got him from Oakland yet Such as He needed roster room for veterans Jess Peterson and Aledmys Díaz.
7. The Philadelphia Story
Don’t take this to mean the Dodgers are happy to build an 87-win team. But the The Phillies proved to be the first year of the Extended Playoffs That the six seeds is not fool’s gold.
(Note to Dodgers: Phillies players have taken the ball through six runs six times in the postseason and won five times.)
A larger sample size of this format would probably show that such a run is an exception, but we saw for the first time two teams that haven’t won 90 games in the LCS. And we just watched the elite teams bend in the blink of an eye. Of the six teams that have won the most regular season games, the Astros have gone 11-2 in postseason games and five more (Dodgers, Braves, Mets, Yankees, basics) went 6-16.
The Dodgers have to be concerned about the depth of competition in the packed NL. It’s not just the Padres. The Braves, Mets, Phillies, and Cardinals are also loaded. All four Elite free agent stops have ended on NL opponents: Korea for giantsAnd the Turner to the PhilliesAnd the Bogarts to Padres And the Swanson to the Cubs. Of the 14 biggest free agent signings this winter, 10 of them were by NL teams—none of them were by the Dodgers.
Los Angeles is not yet done with her list. Once Bauer’s appeal becomes clear, the Dodgers may add another bat and/or reliever. They could trade a quarterback, like Michael A. They could also finish this list earlier than the trade deadline in January.
The Dodgers have won the most games in baseball over the past six years while leading the league in ERA each season and ranking first or second in defensive efficiency over the past four seasons. Translation: they know what they’re doing. It’s a smart organization that has profited from the uncertainty. But based on how the Dodgers have done this winter, the The biggest names are now off the boardThey’re going to try to win in a completely different style in 2023. They’re not building a super team. It will be an even tougher test of how smart they really are as the rest of the league fills the gap on them.
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