The Detroit Lions I’ve won two games in a row, and I can already hear the grumbling of some fans lamenting the loss of a potential first overall spot in 2023. NFL Draft. And while, yes, the Lions are unlikely to now take over that spot — and potentially capture the MVP (or quarterback) in next year’s class, I’m here to tell you that the outlook for the 2022 Detroit Capitals project remains very optimistic.
Thank you, Los Angeles Rams.
Let’s take a look at Detroit’s top five draft picks in the 2023 NFL Draft standing 10 weeks into the season.
Rams pick: 8th overall (4 points)
The Rams (3-6) are in free fall, having lost five of their last six games. You can blame Sunday’s loss — a home game against their rival Cardinals — on the absence of Matthew Stafford, who was going through concussion protocol. Just one problem, though: Arizona was without Kyler Murray, too.
It’s unclear how long Stafford will stay, but the news doesn’t look good for his first choice Cooper Cup. The Rams receiver suffered a sprained ankle that would almost certainly keep him out for several weeks.
Los Angeles haven’t scored 20 points in three weeks and they’ve only scored over 20 points just twice all season. They are 29th in points scored, 28th in DVOA total, and have four games remaining against teams with the winning records. The playoffs seem like a long shot, given that Los Angeles has a 3-5 record in the conference, a 1-3 record in the division, and according to Football Outsiders, Just a 3.9 percent chance in the postseason.
Ramez next match: at Saints Stadium (3-7).
Black pick: 11th overall (down 6 points)
After back-to-back wins, the Lions moved from first overall pick to just outside the top 10. There’s a chance of shooting straight into the top five fairly quickly, as there are currently nine teams with three wins, including Carolina Panthers (3-7) who are currently in third place overall.
In fact, Football Outsiders have odds of finishing in the top five, and it turns out that the Rams’ pick has a much better chance of landing in that range:
The 31.2 percent change in top five picks sounds pretty impressive. But that’s the thing that doesn’t include Detroit’s first-round pick in the top five. If you go to Football Outsiders website, it shows the chance of this pick being among the top five at 16.1 percent. Although you cannot mathematically combine these two ratios, it does show how much it is possible for Lions to get a major capital project.
In fact, if you want to be super optimistic, there’s definitely some overlap of an outside opportunity that Detroit is getting. two Top five picks. So you can rest easier tonight.
Lions second-round pick: 42nd (down 6)
Note: A reminder that every pick after the first round is actually a single higher pick due dolphinsLost first-round pick. Original application still included to avoid confusion.
Remember that in later rounds, teams with the same record will change their standings – with the teams at the bottom of the standings (due to the strength of the schedule) jumping up one point so they are at the top of the line. So while Detroit was in the last row among the five teams (Broncos, Rams, BrownAnd the Steelers) with 3-6 records, they are in fourth place in Round 2.
Vikings second-round pick: 62nd (unchanged)
I don’t know what kind of black magic they have in Minnesota (8-1) this year, but it’s insane. Game 2 in their four-game gauntlet is a trip to Dallas against the Furious Cowboys.
Next Vikings game: at Dallas (6-3).
Lions third-round pick: 72nd (down 5)
The Lions still have five picks in the top 75. Not bad.