In 2022, information isn’t hard to come by, especially when it comes to the NFL. All it takes is one tweet for the word to quickly spread across the world. We witnessed it live on Friday afternoon regarding Los Angeles Chargers And the Justin Herbert.
Last Thursday night, Justin Herbert took a bullet to the ribs that left him in noticeable pain. Remarkably, he only missed one shot. In one play, he was so badly injured that he was unable to scramble for an apron. However, in the next play he unleashed a 35-yard rope. It was really cool to watch. Chargers bookies were a particularly big fan, leading Los Angeles down Get the tailgate cover.
Herbert was diagnosed with a rib cartilage fracture. He was a limited participant in practice on Wednesdays and Thursdays. It looked like he was on his way to play this weekend against Jacksonville. Los Angeles were the home favorites with a 7-point lead over Jaguar on Friday morning. However, that changed on Friday afternoon.
Tweet causing market movement
Friday is the most important training day of the week across the NFL. A large number of players are restricted early in the week because they tend to have accumulated bumps and bruises. However, if you don’t exercise on Friday, that’s not a good sign you’ll be there on Sunday.
When Los Angeles entered the training ground on Friday, Daniel Popper, who covers chargers at The Athletic, tweeted:
Within minutes of Popper’s tweet, a file of Chargers switched from 7 favorite points to 3 favorite points. Clearly, Chase Daniel taking over the first-team reps in final training this week isn’t a good sign when it comes to Herbert. Officially, Herbert was listed as suspect in Sunday’s game.
The spread will move more if Herbert is excluded
While a drop of four points is worth posting, Justin Herbert is worth more than 4 points. Earlier this season, we saw it Duck Prescott It was worth about 10 points for the Cowboy Spread. This seemed like an overreaction by the betting market, but it happened. Even Herbert is better than Prescott.
By moving the spread by four points, the betting market realized the real possibility of not playing Herbert. If it is officially ruled out, I would expect that spread to drop even lower. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Jacksonville as a favorite road in this car if Chase Daniel was under LA center.
By not practicing on Friday, it also highlights how much pain Herbert is dealing with. Playing through this injury may have a greater impact on his play than originally anticipated. However, if Herbert plays, I would expect that streak to go up in L.A.’s favour. If you think Herbert is battling through injury and plays, you can take this gamble and bet Los Angeles with the current depleted number.
However, if you think that Herbert missed the match, there is still value in Jaguar gets three points. If it’s officially disqualified, you won’t get a free field goal in all likelihood. Of course, you can wait until the earliest game time for more clarity. By playing it safe you will have more information at your disposal but you will also lose Possible closing line value.
This linear motion tells us that there is definitely a chance that Herbert won’t play on Sunday. To say the least, that probability is much higher than many thought on Friday morning.