I’m checking out freshmen after picking 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.
Here are the previous versions:
- Evelyn, Jarrett, Carrasco, and Gore
- Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, and Steele
- Walker, Perez, Mana and Bello
- Miguel, Stripling, Jameson, and Ceval
- Whitlock, Hawk, Gray, and Maeda
- Peterson, Matz, Syndergaard, and Quintana
- Pradesh, Wainwright, Soroka, and Ortiz
- Morris, Keeler, Wood, and Suarez
- Waldichuck, illustrator, Walther, wach
- Rodriguez, Bevita, Hall, and German
- Nelson, Turnbull, Martinez and Disclavagne
- Bavadt, Scopal, Smiley, Mueller, and Cavalli
- Kluber, Irvin, Marquis, and Boyd
Bobby Miller (449 ADP)
I’m not the would-be guy, so I’ll rely on others to rate Miller.
Here at FanGraphs, we rank him as the second best prospect in the Dodgers system with Baseball America giving him the same rank. Hitters attack at 98-99 mph and two plus off-past balls, a changeup and a slider. It has a serviceable curve but is a step lower than the other two pitches. Besides the curve, the only other knock against him would be his control at times (3.1 BB/9 in 91 AA IP).
I think he will be recruited soon if there is a lot of competition for major league jobs in Los Angeles. Besides the five in the rotation (Urias, Kershaw, Gonsolin, Syndergaard, May), two more prospects await starting pitcher who already have MLB experience.
in addition to, Gavin Stone (ranked No. 6 in the system) at AAA.
Miller will be on the list of candidates once they are promoted.
Michael Lorenz (455 ADP)
The 31-year-old right-hander hasn’t had a great season looking at the surface (4.24 ERA, 4.20 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP, 7.8 K/9) but he does have a chance to break through. I wrote in the same series last year:
Also, there are no changes to build upon to indicate the hack. His speed decreased during the season. His condition worsened as the season went on (4.49 xFIP in August and 5.72 xFIP in September). In addition, it was violated Yo Darwish He ruled… as a reliever by throwing six pitches with his slider and changing in at least 18% SwStr% over his career. He added a cutter last season, but his strikes have declined.
Lorenzen missed more than two months of the season last summer with a right shoulder strain. When he came back, the long-haired righty was a different pitcher. Lorenzen had a 2.36 ERA in his final five starts of the season with the Angels. He struck out 30 batters and walked only 14 that distance in 26 2/3 innings pitched.
He gave up a try three-quarter delivery and got his arm hole back to normal. He changed his pitch mix, attacking right-handers with a four-sew and a slide, then following up with lefties with a four-sew and a change-up.
And my conclusion:
He started the season throwing all five pitches over 10% of the time, but for that past month it’s basically just a four-pitch (6% SwStr%), a changeup (20% SwStr%, 53% GB%), and a slider (14% SwStr%) %). If it can maintain 15%K%-BB%, it will be similar to Framper ValdezAnd Tyler AndersonAnd Logan Webb in 2022. All three are drafted with at least 300 picks ahead of Lorenzen.
My opinion hasn’t changed. The only issue keeping him from being elite is walking. They went from 3.8 BB/9 before injury to 4.7 BB/9 afterward. Maybe Detroit has an answer.
Matt Brush (458 ADP)
The 24-year-old right-hander struggled with his lead as a starter (7.7 BB/9, 4.80 xFIP) and was moved to the bullpen where he fared better (4.7 BB/9, 2.98 xFIP). At this point, his value in tournaments counts.
Kyle Gibson (465 ADP)
The 35-year-old has had some good seasons and bad, and perhaps the Orioles can bring out the positives.
First, he’s been healthy by making at least 25 starts in every full season since 2014. He’s bound himself to double-digit wins in all but one of those years.
Secondly, he added speed over the past season.
Finally, his slider is elite (19% SwStr%) and his shift is decent (14% SwStr%). The pair has only bowled 32% of the time and his fastball form 62% of the time. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Oriole didn’t try to adjust his pitch mix. He doesn’t deserve to be taken a chance in the draft, but he can be watched and added in the season if there are big changes.
Kyle Harrison (467 ADP)
The 21-year-old is second in the Giants farm system and management says he should get it Shot in rotation this season.
If the Giants were in the running, you might have watched Harrison pitch in September. Zeddy said Harrison is likely to debut next season and possibly be an option to break the rotation on Opening Day.
Last season at AA, he posted a 1.55 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 18.3K/9 in 29 IP. In AAA, he had a 3.11 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 13.6 K/9 in 84 IP.
According to Baseball America, he throws a fast-spinning fastball at 97 miles per hour. In addition, he throws in an “extensive” plus slider and a “development” tweak.
I have no problem with someone taking a chance on Harrison at this point in the draft.