Fantasy Hockey Luck Indicator – The Bruins and Kraken lines are among the luckiest in the NHL


It’s time to do another check-in on how the lines stack up in goals against expected goals as tracked MoneyPuck.


As of Sunday, there have been 72 NHL lines that have played 150 minutes together at five-on-five this season. Some are still together, but others haven’t been together for quite some time and are no longer relevant.

For example, line Jonathan HuberdeauAnd Elias Lindholm And Tyler Tufoli He has one of the biggest discrepancies between their goals and projected goals, but the Flames haven’t used those three together for weeks now.

It’s hard to keep up with the line’s consistency throughout the season. If the streak stays together all season and he puts it at 10 minutes five-on-five per game, they’ll be over 400 minutes together this season. But only three lines have made it this far: the top liners from the Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning and the third liners from the Carolina Hurricanes. In fact, only 12 lines have broken the 300-minute mark this season.

Our “lucky streaks” are the NHL trios with more goals than the predicted goal formulas say, while the “troubled triples” are the streaks with fewer goals than the math says. Most of the stats are as of January 22nd (but some have since been manually updated if relevant) and are based largely on, with some help from

lucky lines


Andrey KuzmenkoAnd Elias Peterson And Ilya MikheevVancouver Canucks (Expected goals, 9.1; Actual goals, 17): Interestingly, this streak has only played a handful of games together since we last checked predicted goals online in a column on November 27 — 63 minutes all together, to be exact. Precision. But after shining under the watchful eye of new coach Rick Tucci, the trio were reunited on Tuesday for their first appearance. And guess what? They scored two goals, once again exceeding their expected goals total. It’s easy to see where the disparity is coming from now, as Kuzmenko commands an impressive 25.6% shooting percentage that equals the league lead. We don’t have a baseline for Kozmenko’s payout percentage, so that’s probably real. Either way, he’s available in 40% of leagues and in the first row under a new coach; Worth adding.


David KrejciAnd to David Buster And Pavel ZachaBoston Bruins (Expected goals, 9.2; Actual goals, 17): This “luck” is actually just spaghetti. Makes expected goal calculations look ridiculous most seasons. But I wanted to highlight this line because Zaka would not be liked. Zacha has been scored in just 6.7% of the league, and has been consistent with 1.8 fantasy points per game (FPPG) last month, which was masked by 1.3 FPPG on the season due to a slow start.

Matty BenearsAnd Jordan Eberle And Jared McCannSeattle Kraken (Expected targets, 8.6; Actual targets, 18): This line is not in this format at this time, and should be referred to more as the Benners and Eberle duo plus a friend. And while much of the blame for “luck” can be pinned on McCann for being tied with Kuzmenko for the highest shooting percentage in the league, Benyeres and Eberle still outperform the goalscorers with his other teammates as well. Especially with Andrey Burakovsky, who is now third in line when healthy, the trio have 10 goals but only 5.7 goals expected. But I still don’t think we should expect Benners to be a lull heading into the end of the season; It’s just good.

Other lucky lines:

Troubled Triads

Tim StozelAnd Claude Giraud And Brady TkachukOttawa Senators (Expected goals, 17.9; Actual goals, 12): I wasn’t going to include this trio, because when sensitive people are healthy, it’s not a streak. but with Josh Norris Going back down through the remainder of the campaign, we may see these three together again. That combination wasn’t in place before Norris’ short comeback, but he’s been the Senators’ most successful this season – and that’s despite the fact that they’ve had bad “luck” with projected goals. Reinjuring Norris is really unfortunate as his presence seems to be the key to Sens having two good lines instead of just one. The return of this line determines the fate of Giroux in fiction, as it does not produce unity with Shin Bento And Alex DeBrinkat — literally, as this trio has no goals this season but allowed seven goals in just 58 minutes (the worst streak in the NHL not by the Chicago Blackhawks for goals-for-60).

Chris KreiderAnd Mika Zibanejad And capo cacoNew York Rangers (Expected Goals, 13.7; Actual Goals, 9): This streak comes and goes, but it was together before Monday’s Rangers game when the team pushed an “all-in” version of their depth chart (Creider, Zibanejad and Artemy Panarin as an upper line). While Kakko is, on the whole, pretty close to his projected single-goal total (10.8 expected; nine actual), I wonder if he owes some of this streak group and gets some extra from the other frequent font group. When Kakko with Alexis Lafreniere And Philip Shettle, the trio is part of the “Lucky Stripes” crew, having scored 6.4 expected goals and 11 actual goals this season. We probably won’t be happy with the end result this season for fantasy, but I think Kakko (and Lafreniere) has a bright fantasy future.

Trevor MooreAnd Philip Danault And Victor ArvidsonLos Angeles Kings (Expected goals, 15.8; Actual goals, 9): Moore isn’t expected to return until after the All-Star break next week, which means we won’t see that streak until February 11th. Moore has not played since December 23. , but this line had been closed to the Kings as a unit until then. in his absence Alex Yuffalo Hold on to the fort and this trio had 5.9 expected goals and six actual goals, so basically good for the money. Danault and Arvidsson both teeter on the brink of being in the lineup for fantasy, but don’t help themselves to stretches like the past six games. The streak with Moore has a slightly better expected goals per 60 rate than the streak with Yavalo, so it will be interesting to see how the Kings handle Moore’s comeback. Either way, we just want a more harmonious shade from Danault and Arvidsson so we can put it on the fantasy list and leave it there.

Other troubled triads:

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