How the Packers can still make the playoffs in 2022


Green Bay Packers They could still make the playoffs this season, but they’re really on life support at this time. Their single biggest problem is that while a 10-7 may be good enough for some teams to get in, those teams will almost certainly have a tiebreaker advantage over Green Bay. This means that outside of an insane meltdown by one of the current wildcard teams, the Packers should be practically perfect.


That’s a tough ask for a team that doesn’t have Rachan Gary for the remainder of the season and play road games against Philly and Miami. But until they’re officially dead, they have hope. In at least one instance, a major meltdown is entirely possible, and in the always-goofy NFL, getting breaks happens with some hesitation. They have three reasonable paths to get into, and so let’s take a look at each.

Giant collapse

That might sound like a long shot, as not only do the Giants have a massive 3.5-game lead over the Packers, but they’re also holding a tiebreaker thanks to their head-to-head win over Green Bay in London. We should also give credit if credit is due because the Giants are so well coached by Brian Dabul, they tend not to get the better of themselves.

However, of all the teams before the Packers, they are probably the Paper Tigers. they Pythagoras’ record is only 5-4 They only outperformed their competition by a total of 14 points. They are 5-1 in one game and have fattened with just 15The tenth Hardest schedule by DVOA. their schedule More difficult to move on (6The tenth by DVOA), and each metric brings them closer to a . 500 team than the 7-2 team they are currently. They are 20 years oldThe tenth In general at DVOAwith only 24The tenth Defense rating. They are 20 years oldThe tenth In EPA defensive/playAnd though their abuse was surprisingly good, (15The tenth At DVOA, a truly shocking 8The tenth In EPA/Play), they’ve scored 21 points or fewer 5 times, and a season high of just 27.

The Giants will likely be important underdogs against them in Dallas, in both meetings with Philadelphia, and in Minnesota. Then it comes down to two games with the captains, one with the Lions and one with the Colts. While the Colts are terrible, Detroit actually leads the Giants in DVOA overall (19The tenth), and Washington with Taylor Heineke are roughly on the same level. If New York loses all of its tough games and shares its relatively minor games, it will finish 9-8, which means Green Bay will need to finish the season 10-7, while also passing Washington, to get in. It’s a long shot, but reasonable.

Cowboy falls apart

The problem with this scenario is that the Cowboys are legitimately good. Despite losing to Green Bay on Saturday, Dallas is still a four-year-oldThe tenth Generally in DVOA, although there are some warts like They are only 17 years oldThe tenth In EPA / Play When attacking (although there is a healthy dose of Cooper Rush baked into these numbers). The case against Dallas is still based not on any hidden underlying weakness, but rather on its proximity to Green Bay. Dallas is only 2.5 games ahead of Green Bay, but unlike the Giants, the Packers have a head-to-head tiebreaker, and while Dallas’ future schedule isn’t particularly grueling (26)The tenth By DVOA), they still have four road games starting with the Vikings next week and one more game against Philly. They also have brownies against Houston and Indy, but they’re up against a better-than-record Jacksonville team in Florida, Thursday night’s game in Tennessee, and one game against the Giants and Chiefs.

500 during the rest of the season would put them at 10-7 and be vulnerable to Packer Serge as the Packers own the tiebreaker. Again, it’s a long shot, but a reasonable long shot.

The 49ers Can’t get it

The 49ers sit just a game and a half ahead of the Packers, but they’re probably better than they are. They are 11The tenth and DVOA And he can boast of League 8The tenth The best defense. EPA/Play likes defense the most, as they’re ranked fifthThe tenth. The 49ers are an underperforming team with 4The tenth The easiest remaining schedule, and usually in this case, you see a boom in the second half.

Still, they’re close enough to still be pluggable if the Packers can automatically start playing like an elite team themselves. The only really tough games left for the 49ers is a home game against Miami on December 4thThe tenth and visiting Seattle Football on Thursday night, December 15thThe tenth, but even if they drop those two games, Green Bay will likely need to see them lose at least one more game to an NFC team for tie-breaking purposes. This means that Arizona, New Orleans, Tampa, and Washington will need to create an upset, and Washington is a complex potential problem in its own right.

Still, at least possible. Miami and Seattle will likely be favored in the matches, and if Green Bay can be perfect, or even perfect except for the Miami game, that could be enough.

The Packers’ biggest problem is the Packers (and Washington)

The biggest problem with Green Bay is that outside of this past week, there is very little indication that this is some kind of sleeping giant ready to be awakened, as it was in 2010, or that they are about to go nuclear as they did. In 2016. If anything, they are injury prone now more than they were before, and expecting them to finish 6-1 is tough. They really did their best chances against what should have been the easiest part of the schedule, but what might frustrate them more than anything is Washington.

Even if some of these unexpected scenarios were to pass, Washington would most likely be involved, almost absurd. Washington plays every one of those teams, including the Giants twice, and while the Packers need New York, Dallas and San Francisco to lose, they can’t get much help from the leaders. Washington owns the tiebreaker head-to-head with Green Bay and currently has the better record.

Dropping this game may be the players’ worst loss of the season, even though the Chiefs don’t look like a playoff team. Green Bay still needs to get past Washington, as they can’t end up in a three-way tie with Washington and come out on top in most scenarios. This loss also cost the Packers the NFC conference tie-breaker game, and Washington would also be a common opponent by the end of the season. If they win that match, they’re in much better shape, and I suspect they’ll end up chasing after all is said and done.

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