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NFL game photo updated: Patriots anchor stand as Jets and Giants shake

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Although we haven’t seen as much change as the previous week, week 11 of NFL The regular season saw three teams who were in the projected final playoff picture lose. The New York JetsAnd the Minnesota Vikings And the New York Giants Everything went down, and while the Vikings’ game odds haven’t changed dramatically, both the Giants and Jets have seen their odds drop. The two New York teams were two of three in the league that saw their odds drop by double digits.

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I predict the score for each game and the final winning percentage for each team using my NFL betting model. The model gradually scrapes old data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. We then run that simulation 100,000 times after each game day to give us Super Bowl odds and predictions from my NFL model. The tables below show each team’s record entering Week 12, their projected regular season win total, odds percentage of making the playoffs and how their remaining schedule ranks 1-32 from hardest to easiest.

Picture of the AFC play-off match

Team register project. Wins Prospect SOS rating

8-2

13.1

>99.9%

T-25

7-3

10.8

98.0%

T14

7-3

11.9

98.0%

T-20

7-3

10.8

92.5%

T-9

7-3

11

92.1%

31

6-4

9.3

65.3%

1

6-4

9.5

59.3%

2

5-5

8.5

39.1%

T-12

6-4

8.7

35.7%

T-17

4-6-1

7.1

8.5%

T22

3-7

6.8

4.1%

T-20

3-7

6.1

3.7%

T22

3-7

6.3

2.6%

T-5

3-7

6.1

1.1%

T 28

3-7

5.8

0.4%

T-5

1-8-1

2.8

0.0%

T4

Let’s start with those planes. The Jets saw their playoff prospects drop by 13.8 percent – the second most in the NFL – after losing to New England Patriots. Robert Salah’s team must be very disappointed with that considering their offense only gave three points to the Patriots offense. As always, there is a beneficiary to such a big swing, and the Patriots were as well. They saw the NFL’s largest increase as a result of their victory (15.1 percent) and are now likely to make the playoffs less than two-thirds of the time. That’s certainly not a guarantee at this point, but given how tight things are in Week 11 (four teams have a 46 to 51 percent chance of making the playoffs but only two spots available to them), they’ll get any raise. can get.

The Patriots and Jets were two of those four teams, but what about the other two?

The Cincinnati Bengals hit the Pittsburgh Steelers It saw the second largest jump in the AFC as a result. The defending AFC champion is now 59.3 percent to make the playoffs, up 13.1 percent from last week. The other team was Los Angeles Chargerswhose loss in the last minutes to Kansas City Chiefs It also caused dunks playoff odds. The Chargers saw their game odds drop by 9.7 percent (the fourth-largest drop in the NFL), and now it’s at 39.1 percent, which puts them out of the AFC playoffs picture.

The AFC top is not quite decided, but with the top five teams in the conference, the odds of the playoffs are better than 92 percent. An interesting note is that Tennessee Titans They are now more likely to make the playoffs than Buffalo bills – by 0.05 percent – but the Bills are 18 percent more than the titans lock-up.

NFC Image Separator

Team register project. Wins Prospect SOS rating

9-1

13.9

>99.9%

T22

8-2

12.2

99.5%

32

7-3

11.8

99.0%

27

6-4

10.6

94.1%

16

5-5

9.2

85.9%

T-25

6-4

9.6

71.1%

T-12

7-3

9.6

59.9%

3

6-5

8.7

40.7%

T-17

5-6

7.3

16.7%

19

4-6

7.1

9.7%

30

4-7

7.1

9.1%

T14

4-7

6.4

6.6%

T-9

4-7

6.7

3.3%

T-9

3-7

6.4

2.9%

7

3-8

5.3

1.5%

T 28

3-8

4.9

0.1%

8

Now let’s talk about the other one in the New York metro area. The Giants lost as the small’s best candidate Detroit Lions On Sunday, the result was the largest drop in playoff odds across the entire NFL (15.8%). The Giants are still favored to go into the playoffs at 59.9, but the loss to the Lions was a game they would love to win back. Just like the AFC East, the beneficiary of the Giants’ demise is a sub-rival – the AFC Washington leaders. The leaders disembarked Houston Tx easily and now sits at 40.7 percent to make the playoffs, up 18.9 percent from last week. This is the biggest driver of the week, positive or negative, across the entire NFL. The Giants are still in the playoff picture for now, but the leaders are right behind them, and the teams meet twice in the next four weeks.

It wasn’t a great week for the top two teams in the NFC, but at least Philadelphia Eagles Had a win while the Minnesota Vikings weren’t so lucky. Just a week after the Eagles were upset by the Leaders and the Vikings upset the Bills and found themselves with a high chance of getting a bye into the NFC playoffs, those odds are back to where they were two weeks ago. The Eagles are now over 99.9 percent likely to make the playoffs and are expected to lock up byes in 72.1 percent of the simulation. The Vikings didn’t see a significant drop in their playoff odds (0.3 percent), but their odds of a top seed in the NFC dropped 17.9 percent to just 12.7 percent.

Why did the Vikings see their odds of a #1 seed drop so much? The Dallas Cowboys. After guiding the Vikings, Dallas is expected to make the playoffs 99.0 percent of the time and secure the bye and home field advantage in the NFC playoffs 12.2 percent of the time. A showdown between the Cowboys and Eagles in Dallas on Christmas Eve could have major ramifications for the NFC. The Cowboys have the third best odds of making the NFC playoffs, but they will likely play on the road to start the NFC playoffs. And this road game will most likely be against up-and-coming pirates and Tom Brady.

Outside of the New York Giants, there was only one NFC team with twice as low in playoff odds – Green Bay Packers. The Packers fell to the Titans at home last Thursday night and saw their playoff odds cut in half. Actually, it was more than that. The odds of the Packers making the playoffs were 19.8 percent heading into last week, and now they’re just 9.1 percent. It’s not time to turn out the lights in Green Bay, but they can’t afford to lose too many games and it’s likely they’ll need some help over the last six weeks.

Here’s a look at each team’s odds for winning the division, their conferences, and the Super Bowl:

Super Bowl predictions

Team div CONF Energy

81.4%

27.3%

13.5%

99.3%

26.5%

13.2%

98.8%

20.6%

10.4%

59.3%

19.1%

9.8%

17.3%

14.1%

7.0%

30.3%

11.9%

6.1%

78.0%

12.0%

6.0%

79.5%

10.6%

5.5%

97.7%

11.1%

5.5%

83.9%

7.9%

3.9%

8.7%

7.3%

3.5%

21.7%

5.7%

2.9%

18.7%

6.1%

2.9%

1.2%

4.7%

2.3%

0.1%

3.6%

1.9%

0.6%

3.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.6%

1.2%

9.7%

1.2%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.5%

0.5%

0.9%

0.5%

0.7%

0.7%

0.3%

5.1%

0.5%

0.3%

1.4%

0.3%

0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

0.1%

0.3%

0.3%

0.1%

1.7%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%

0.2%

0.1%

1.4%

0.1%

0.1%

0.4%

0.1%

<0.1%

<0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

(picture Ramondri Stephenson: Billy Weiss/Getty Images)

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