Paul Goldschmidt is on his way to the best player – and maybe even the Hall of Fame

Paul Goldschmidt, the St. Louis Cardinals’ number one businessman, is no stranger to discussing the most valuable player. Now in its twelfth season, He got the top three votes In three different years (albeit all with his former team, the Arizona Diamondbacks). But this year is different. Goldschmidt is not only among the top performers in the game; Statistically, it is the National League best hitter and also her Best player overallto earn his place as a MVP’s Favorite Bet.

So after years of default, 2022 could be the year Goldschmidt finally takes home the finest singles hardware. No matter how you break it down, Goldschmidt is having the best year of an already decorated career. In fact, this is the kind of year that should push him into a different discussion – the Hall of Fame convincing debate.

Goldschmidt has always been on the shortlist of baseball’s top talent. Although it was only taken in The eighth round of the amateur project 2009Goldschmidt was an above-average hitter in the MLB in a sample of 48 games during his 2011 debut season—and became a daily hitter the following season, when he placed 126 OPS+ and 3.6 wins above substitution, per Baseball reference. With the 2013 season approaching, the Diamondbacks were rewarded for their performance, He signed a five-year, $32 million extension. He would reward them once again by becoming one of the game’s top players by WAR over the next six seasons.

Goldschmidt’s early peak was second only to Trout

Most wins over replacement (WAR) among speculators during the 2013-18 MLB seasons

Rank player AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS + war
1 Mike Trout .307 .424 .582 1.006 179 53.6
2 Paul Goldschmidt .301 .406 .541 0.947 150 36.1
3 Mocky Pets .303 .370 .518 0.888 134 35.0
4 Josh Donaldson .280 .375 .519 0.895 143 34.1
5 Mane Machado .283 .337 .489 0.826 122 32.8

The Mookie Betts entered the major league in 2014.

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

From 2013 to 2018, Goldschmidt was 50 percent better than the average hitter, a permanent All-Star winner and a three-time Gold Glove winner. If all that wasn’t enough, he also stole 102 bases during that time, Which was the highest total away Among the first basic rule. (It has always been one of the hallmarks of Goldschmidt’s deceptive stars Elite running prowess.) In five of those seasons, Goldschmidt has accumulated at least 5 WAR, Put it firmly into the star zone.

In an effort to rebuild after the ’18 season, Diamondbacks Goldschmidt traded to the CardinalsWho will do that next? Sign it to a huge stretch worth $130 million a few months later. But his tenure as the Cardinals didn’t get off to the start, as 2019 saw Goldschmidt’s offensive production drop dramatically (although his strength numbers remain the same). By the time he turned 32 at the end of the season, it looked like Goldschmidt might have fallen victim to the aging curve, As he suddenly struggled to hit fast balls.

But what is remarkable about Goldschmidt’s career is that his heyday didn’t end when it seemed to be. Instead, after Make an adjustment to his batting positionGoldschmidt has rebounded so well in the years since his poor performance, even putting together another star-studded season in 2021.

Now in 2022, Goldschmidt has turned his game up to 11And the Accelerate the National League With 187 OPS + and 7.7 WAR. (If FanGraphs WAR is your style, well, The league leads in that too.)

According to WAR, Goldschmidt, currently sitting at 58.4, is already there The 21 best first base player of all time, and his name is ahead of many players already in the hall. While Goldschmidt is unlikely to catch him Fellow still-producer Albert Pujolswho will retire to the exclusive WAR 100-plus club, likely pick up the likes of other active key players such as Joey Votto (64.3) and Miguel Cabrera (67.9), both of whom are considered, different degreesas such Future Hall of Fame themselves.

Goldschmidt is not Pujols…but compares well to other 1Bs

Most Profession Above Replacement (WAR) wins among active basemen

Rank player AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS + war
1 Albert Pujols .296 .374 .543 .917 144 101.0
2 Miguel Cabrera .308 .384 .524 .909 142 67.9
3 joy photo .297 .412 .513 .926 145 64.3
4 Paul Goldschmidt .296 .391 .528 .919 145 58.4
5 Freddy Freeman .298 .386 .509 .895 140 48.5

Source: baseball-reference.com

Although Goldschmidt celebrated his 35th birthday earlier this month, it’s a pretty safe bet that he has some good – even great – seasons left, especially based on his world class performance this season. This bodes well for his opportunity to honor Cooperstown since his career previously Overstock more than enough against the average of the first player in the hall and has already surpassed them by metrics such as Peak Wars (also known as WAR7 in baseball reference) as well as WAR per 162 games (referred to as WAR/162).

by WAR7, Who looks at the seven best years of a player To appreciate how cool he is at his best, Goldschmidt’s 45.3 WAR is more than three full wins better than the Hall of Fame average. If he can produce another season better than 5.0 WAR, which certainly seems possible, he could widen that gap even more. by WAR/162, Which elicits the player’s war on 162 matches, Goldschmidt’s score of 5.9 is a better win than the HOF average. This number will fade with age, but for context, Pujols maintained 5.3 WAR / 162 Although 12 seasons were removed from its peak.

Goldschmidt falls short in some important categories, for now. Through his WAR career, he is still nearly seven wins behind the pace, and with a difference JAWS Hall of Fame . Scalewhich averages a player’s total WAR with a peak WAR of seven years to try Balance longevity vs peak valueHis score of 51.8 is just below the standard of 53.8 set by the rest of the first base men in the hall. But given how close he is to both averages, it won’t be long before Goldschmidt is above water in all four of these important Hall criteria.

All this means is that this isn’t just a career-level campaign or MVP for Goldschmidt. He was a great player earlier in his career, but this is the kind of season he needed to go from just being one of the game’s greatest players to one of the best in the game. greatest players. like cardinals continue to withdraw From Milwaukee Brewers to NL Central title, Goldschmidt should carry his general storybook beyond the following season – where he can add even more to his cause of being immortalized in Cooperstown.

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