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Red Sox are the biggest losers in MLB’s Wild Offseason | News, results, highlights, stats and rumours

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Billy Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images

The Boston Red Sox have gone through things like an 86-year drought, Chicken and beer gate And the Bobby Valentine Managementso the phrase “low point” has no business being used in conjunction with what’s going on out of season.

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But “a puzzling point?” or “confusing point?” This is what is needed.

While other teams enjoy their contributions to major league baseball records 3.5 billion dollars Offseason, the Red Sox are in a corner usually reserved for the Eeyores and Richie Tenenbaums From the world. Huge losses will do it, and it feels like they suffered more from these this winter than they did during their miserable 36-53 slide to last place in the MLS East during the back half of the 2022 season.

Franchise shortstop Xander Bogaerts? He’s gone to the San Diego Padres, and who can blame him? Especially now, courtesy of ESPN John LeeFrom there, Boston paved the way for his exit with a “smack” from the initial show.

John Lee @to run

Chaim Bloom relives the Xander Bogaerts negotiations in his head

“There are a couple of regrets.”

The decision to let Bogaerts walk raised questions about whether the ownership group was committed to winning

For the Red Sox State: https://t.co/RNDeKc92Bn

Fellow midfield starting lineup JD Martinez? He is now a Los Angeles Dodger. Left side Matt Straham? Philadelphia Philly. Fellow pitchers Nathan Ivaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill could still technically return to Beantown, but rumors of interest in All From they Elsewhere does not bode well in the context of all of the above.

Even the less painful leaving Boston is still painful in other ways. The assignment assignments of Eric Hosmer and Jeter Downs, specifically, leave the Red Sox with less to offer in trades that include young lefty Jay Groom and a guy named Mookie Betts.


This is not for lack of trying (and this is not a compliment)

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Xander Bogaerts of the San Diego Padres, left, plays with his beard as General Manager AJ Preller looks on at a press conference held to announce the end of Bogaerts' $280 million, 11-year connection, Friday, December 9, 2022, in San Diego.  (AP Photo/Dennis Borough)

AP Photo/Dennis Borough

The ironic part is that the Red Sox’s offseason actually started off on a positive note.

They started the deal before the ’22 season even ended, with Enrique Hernandez even extending a $10 million deal in September. An encouraging move on its own, and much more so, given what Chief Baseball Official Haim Blum had to say to the 31-year-old.

“I wouldn’t say he promised me,” Hernandez said He said“But he promised me that next year we’d be better off.”

So he went in October, when there was uproar about the Red Sox extending and adding Bogaerts Much needed strength. Until November, where Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that the Red Sox showed a “strong willingness to spend”. Even earlier this month, when Bloom Speak frankly By adding “seven, eight, nine, maybe more players.”

It all sounded too good and not too good to be true either.

Boston’s projected 2023 payroll was at one point More than $80 million with an average annual value below the luxury tax threshold of $233 million next year. Nor is it like the Red Sox are strangers to him Big spend In the 20 years under John Henry, whose empire was the Fenway Sports Group It is said worth $9.8 billion.

However, here they are. Not only with a list of cringe-worthy departures, but even without a single list of markets Top 25 free proxies Or upgrade one via the commercial marketplace. All because of arrogance. Or maybe ignorance. or a combination of the two.

All of this is in the Bogarts saga. The slap-dash offer Boston made to him during spring training demanded another year and $30 million on top of the three years and $60 million left on his contract. At $90 million, the total guarantee was $50 million less than what the Red Sox had just offered Trevor Storey.

Fast forward to december, and alex speer of Boston Globe It reported Boston’s final offer as $120 million south of the $280 million it received from the Padres.

Alex Speer @the expire

The Red Sox’s bid for Bogaerts was 6 years and about $160 million – higher AAV (about $27 million) than what they got from SD ($25.5 million), but with such a huge gap in range that it wasn’t even close. Boston Globe

Even then, Boston seemed guilty of misreading the market. It was clear it was going to be hotter than expected when both relievers Rafael Montero and Robert Suarez signed. deals above the market In November. Once upon a time Jacob DeGrum, Trea Turner, and Aaron Judge graced the winter meetings with deals worth a combined $845 million, and even more.

Now there is no need to speculate. This quote from Bogaerts agent Scott Boras on the Red Sox to Lee speaks volumes: “I can only say that the Xander market was very different from what their models said. But it’s happened before.”

It’s easy to put this on Bloom, and not undeservedly so, given Boras’ subsequent shade about Bloom’s player ratings being “too specific.” However, much blame must also be placed on Henry and co-owners Tom Werner and Larry Luchino. Bloom is their man, after all, and one wonders if his ratings are so stringent since his budget is so.


What the Red Sox did is not good enough

BOSTON, MA - DECEMBER 15: Masataka Yoshida #7 of the Boston Red Sox speaks during a press conference announcing his contract agreement with the Boston Red Sox on December 15, 2022 at Fenway Park in Boston, MA.  (Photo by Billy Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
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Billy Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images

Naturally, the Red Sox weren’t completely remiss in their duty to make the team better.

crook That puts free agent spending at $73.2 million, which covers third baseman Justin Turner and relieves Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Julie Rodriguez. Technically speaking Not Counting Japanese superstar Masataka Yoshida, who signed a five-year, $90 million deal with Boston.

However, he did a lot of good for them. if FanGraphs predictions for war For 2023, is there any indication, the Red Sox are on their way to being one of the worst teams in the AL again:

Graph via Google Sheets

This here highlights the main difference between the Red Sox and other off-season losers like, for example, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Although they also suffered heavy losses while underperforming, they still emerged as a top-five team in the National League.

And this outlook may indeed be very sanguine in Boston, if for no other reason than that it hinged on the very unlikely prospect for the club. 3.0 war From the older, more vulnerable Chris Sale.

There is also room for doubt as to whether Jansen will solidify the Boston bulls from top to bottom. Its reputation precedes it, but it’s new High job contact rateand his slow rhythm throws him in bad fit for the next presentation timer.

So, the Red Sox may need their offense to do the heavy lifting in 2023, perhaps to the point where it will need to outperform even the fourth-place unit in the AL in scoring this past season.

This, too, is highly unlikely.

The Red Sox will need Turner and Yoshida to be at least as good as Bogarts and Martinez, who combined for 127 wRC+ in 2022. Sadly, the 38-year-old Turner is actually older and less powerful Martinez. And while Yoshida was a 326 hitter with decent power in Japan, apparently Nobody but the Red Sox I think it will have a detrimental effect in the majors.


Good luck trying to save this off season

NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 22: Rafael Devers #11 of the Boston Red Sox plays at bat in the third inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 22, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City.  (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Elsa / Getty Images

The silver lining should be that the Red Sox still have plenty of time to salvage their off-season, but what they don’t have as abundantly as time is options.

The free agent market, as noted, has been largely picked clean. That mainly leaves the commercial market, which Bloom identified as “a really good way to add impact for our club” to The Athletic’s Chad Jennings.

Chad Jennings @22 – Shady Jennings

In the wake of Xander Bogaerts leaving for San Diego, the Red Sox are turning their focus to the trade market. “It’s something we’re exploring very actively,” said Haim Blum. https://t.co/NNvb5Ejs6Q

However, it is doubtful that potential first baseman Triston Casas and right-back Brian Bellew, who was due to be part of the big club in 2023, would be delayed. One always assumes there are Bobby Dalbec and Jaren Duran, but they have “value” as Wally has Full set of fingers.

None of this necessarily helps Boston’s leverage in trade talks. Nor is the fact that the club’s predicament is an open secret. It’s hard to imagine them getting a favorable deal with anyone, especially not with players like Pittsburgh Pirates quarterback Brian Reynolds (who wants out) and Cleveland Guardians shortstop Amed Rosario (which seems redundant).

Instead of miraculously getting instant promotions, the Red Sox’ best hope for making their money back in the offseason is Rafael Devers.

Ideally, the Red Sox will extend it before free agency calls him his number after the 2023 season. The two-time All-Star third baseman is only 26 years old, and so he’s a relatively safe bet for the kind of lifetime contract that’s suddenly in vogue around MLB. .

But since word from Lee is that Devers and the Red Sox are “two galaxies” in negotiations—and, boy, is he taking that route now—it’s hard not to contemplate whether trading Devers is the more practical thing to do.

Even putting Hungarian Bay aside in contract talks, there’s logic in selling high on him now as he rides high after winning 65 home runs in 2021 and 2022. That guy will probably stay in 2023, but there’s always the possibility he could run afoul of injuries. or ineffectiveness and loss of value accordingly.

This, to be sure, is the nuclear option for what the Red Sox have left to work with. But, hey, the fact that anyone can think of this idea is on them.

When you go from the excitement of building a “better” team to a desperate attempt to avoid becoming a worse team, you’ve screwed up.


Stats courtesy of baseball referenceAnd the fangrafs And the baseball world.

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