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The Wizards lose the next man’s trophy to the Miami Heat

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Last night’s Wizards-Heat match was a classic “man next door” fight. Miami regained some of the actual NBA roster for the game. Washington was missing large portions of its rotation.

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The Wizards’ inactive roster included starting guards Bradley Bell and Monty Morris, backup guard Dillont Wright, and backup forward Roy Hachimura.

For the heat: Jimmy Butler, Max Stross, Duncan Robinson, Victor Oladipo, and Omar Yurtseven.

Just by looking at the names, I think the missing players worked a little bit for Miami. Butler is the best player on either team, and Max Stross is decent, but the Wizards have lost two starters and two high-ranking reserves, including the honorary franchise player. Call it a wash, I think.

While the Wizards defense wasn’t great (it wasn’t bad either), the real problem was on the offensive end where once again they couldn’t make up Miami’s 2-3 area. In the first half, they repeatedly try to send the ball to someone who is positioned at the elbow. That person was usually Kristaps Porzingis, although some elbow touches went to Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Goodwin and Denny Avdija.

With the exception of Avdija, everyone who got the ball in the elbow turned into a “loose” belly in the heat zone and ruined Take a screenshot of the floating scope. This was ineffective and insane because that was exactly the shot Miami wanted them to take.

Washington still shot a good percentage from the floor (52.8% efg), but committed 14 turnovers, grabbed only 7 offensive boards, and failed to reach the free throw line (or make it when it got there).

On defense, they did a solid job of forcing fumbles, holding the Heat to just under 50.5% effective field goal percentage. But Washington failed to dominate the defensive boards – Miami’s Bam Adebayo, Caleb Martin and Jamal Kane all grabbed 4 offensive rebounds each. Cain came in just 18 minutes on the floor.

Also, Martin, Kyle Lowry, and Tyler Hero shot 14-25 from three-point range. Lowry was 5-6 deep.

The good

Denny Avdeja had a solid game – 12 points, 9 rebounds, 10 assists, a steal and an assist. He even hit a step back three. He had a bad stretch in the fourth quarter with some sloppy mistakes and turnovers, his defense was solid but not exceptional, but he played well. His usage was reasonable (18.5%), his efficiency solid (112 points per possession x 100 – league average 112), and even his turnover was passable with 10 assists.

Will Barton had one of his best games this season – 13 points on 10 field goal attempts, as well as 7 rebounds and 7 assists in 29 minutes. His defense didn’t help much, although he had the misfortune of sharing the ground with Daniel Gafford and Anthony Gill, both of whom played poorly.

Cherry blossom costume is awesome. If it’s my decision, this will be the full-time look, along with the new name.

not so good

Christaps Porcingis’ outing was bad. 21 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists looked good, but he hit 19 shots, connecting 2-9 from three-point range, and committed a fumble. At 29.9% usage, his offensive rating was 96.

Corey Kisbert needs to find a way to take more shots and contribute more in attack. Last night, his usage was just 12.2%, and he shot six triples on 83 possessions on the court. She counted at least three times that he was open from deep and the shot down was denied due to the strong closing. This contributed to his three transformations. It doesn’t contribute in enough other ways to justify significant gameplay time if it hadn’t taken the trilogy and made it.

Hassan Kinda

Kyle Kuzma scored 33 points. When a friend texted me after the game, Kuzma kept fapping until he got hot. As I was coming back with the letters he kept shooting until I got cold again. Kuzma was not shy about pulling the trigger. took 27 shots and miss 11 three. However, it was actually one of the offense’s best nights, in part because he committed no shifts. He also only had one help. And his defense was largely missing in action, as was his rebounding action.

Jordan Goodwin started first and was fine. He shot three, had three assists and put in a solid defensive effort.

Here are the four factors that determine wins and losses in basketball – shooting (EFG), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (spinning), and fouling (free throws).

I’ve simplified it a bit. While factors are usually presented as percentages, I find raw numbers most useful when analyzing a single game.

Four Factors: Processors are in heat

Four factors wizards the heat
Four factors wizards the heat
EFG 0.528 0.505
OREB 7 14
TOV 14 12
FTM 11 19
Speed 101
ORTG 104 112

Here are some performance metrics, including a player’s average (PPA) game score (very similar to the one I used to call a scoreboard impact rating). PPA is my total production measure, which gives players credit for the things they do that help the team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defense) and beats them for the things that hurt them (missed shots, turnovers, poor defense, fouls).

Game Score (GMSC) Converts individual productions into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as the points and reflects each player total contributions for the game. The minimum possible GmSC is zero.

PPA It is a per-holding measure designed for larger datasets. At small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. But some readers prefer that, so I’m including the PPA scores, too. A reminder: in a PPA, 100 is medium, higher is better and a substitution level is 45. For a single game, a substitution level isn’t much help, and I repeat caution about small samples producing strange results.

POS It is the number of possessions that each player had on the ground in this game.

PTS = points scored

ORTG = Offensive rating, which is the number of points produced per individual possession x 100. The league average last season was 112.0. The points produced are not the same as the points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving assists.

Deputy Secretary General = abusive use rate. The average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of the stats created by Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and slightly modified by me. ORTG is an aptitude measure that takes into account shooting value, offensive rebounds, assists, and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the ground and the free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists, and turnovers.

Statistics and metrics: wizards

wizards minute POS PTS ORTG Deputy Secretary General PPA GMCC +/-
wizards minute POS PTS ORTG Deputy Secretary General PPA GMCC +/-
Kyle Kuzma 40 84 33 112 29.0% 139 28.5 -9
Denny Avdija 41 85 12 112 18.5% 127 26.5 -3
Will Barton 29 62 13 117 20.4% 149 22.5 -10
Jordan Goodwin 25 52 8 110 14.6% 65 8.2 -1
Christaps Porzingis 33 70 21 96 29.9% 31 5.3 -3
Daniel Gafford 10 21 4 93 22.3% 81 4.2 -10
This is Gibson 5 10 4 132 22.4% 140 3.5 5
Johnny Davis 6 12 0 0.0% 98 2.8 -6
Corey Kisbert 39 83 8 80 12.2% 14 2.7 -5
Anthony Gill 13 26 2 53 10.9% 11 0.7 2

Stats and metrics: heat

heat minute POS PTS ORTG Deputy Secretary General PPA GMCC +/-
heat minute POS PTS ORTG Deputy Secretary General PPA GMCC +/-
Caleb Martin 40 85 24 157 17.5% 276 40.6 -2
Kyle Lowry 35 74 28 147 24.9% 260 33.3 19
Jamal Cain 18 37 6 112 21.4% 170 11.0 8
Dewayne Didmon 13 27 9 155 20.2% 194 8.9 2
Bam Adebayo 35 74 15th 94 23.7% 65 8.3 6
Haywood Highsmith 38 79 5 80 7.0% 53 7.2 16
Tyler Hero 29 62 17 93 26.0% 29 3.2 -10
Nikola Jovic 12 26 7 73 28.0% 10 0.5 -8
Gabe Vincent 19 40 2 52 19.6% -140 0.0 9
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