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This bizarre post-bye Bill Belichick trend could turn out for the Patriots Jets

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The Patriots have been feeling a little sleepy coming off a break lately

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The narrative surrounding Bill Belichick (or any good NFL coach) coming off a bye is well known: Belichick and coaches like him are dominant when they have a week to prepare for an opponent.

This is certainly true, at least in some respects with respect to Belichick. New England has a 15-7 regular season record coming out of a bye under the legendary head coach. Two out of three times, his team walks off the field in victory. this is very good.

The Patriots will attempt to improve their record on Sunday when they return to Gillette Stadium to host the New York Jets In what numbers to be The most important chapter in this rivalry in years.

Subsequent Patriots tend to win these games, which is all that matters to Belichick and his team. However, when you consider point spread, New England is far from a sure thing. The Patriots under Belichick are just 12-10 for difference with this extra week in the regular season. Obviously, this is much akin to a coin toss.

The The Patriots opened as a four-point favorite As for Sunday’s tilt at Foxboro, but bettors are quick to bet them at -3, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see New England go chalk by 3.5 points. It’s hard to hold him back. Jets quarterback Zack Wilson hasn’t given any real indication that he can hit the road and beat a team led by Belichick. On the other hand, the Patriots have one of the NFL’s worst offenses and are poised to match a spunky defensive unit that is particularly scarce in the secondary.

But if you delve into Belichick’s history, an interesting betting angle emerges. The cap tip for that idea goes to Boston Sports Journal’s Greg Bedard, who reported on Tuesday 98.5 in The Sports Hub “Felger and Massarotti” that New England tends to start slow byes. Bedard A 2012 story written for The Boston Globe Given the Patriots’ early game struggles in their first appearance after a bye.

Using that narrative as a starting point, we’ve taken a deeper dive into New England’s recent regular season history coming off a bye, and there are some interesting findings. Here are the first half results from the Patriots’ last four regular season games after a bye.

2021: Late Colts 17-0
2020: Trail Broncos 12-3
2019: Late Eagles 10-9
2018: The Jets tied 10-10

In fact, the Patriots have trailed or tied at halftime in eight of their last 12 games coming off their byes. In two of the games they captained, opponents Brock Osweiler and Brandon Weeden started at quarterback. None of these gentlemen are particularly good at quarterbacking in the NFL. Those two teams, the 2017 Broncos and 2015 Cowboys, respectively, are 9-23 combined.

The DraftKings sports site currently has The Patriots are the 3-point favorite in the first half for Sunday’s match.

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This +140 Gates money line certainly stands out as well.

Admittedly, this is a small sample size, but it’s an interesting little wrinkle – opinions and bets were formed on less grounds. It’s by no means a sure thing, though, in large part because Wilson may finally be closer to Osweiler and Weeden when all is said and done. But this Jets team could also be good – Wilson though.

Dealing with this trend may also offer some in-game value. If the Patriots trail in the first half, they’ll be a tempting bet in the second half, especially considering how they outscored the Jets 16-7 in the second half of their Week 8 meeting. The Patriots have already outscored the Jets 51-13 in the second half of their three games during the Wilson-Robert Salih era.

Do what you will with that info, but don’t be surprised if the Patriots (again) sweat it out early before they come back to win Sunday in Foxboro.

The origin of NESN 360 is inside the article
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Thumbnail via Lon Horwedel/USA TODAY Sports Images

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